Supply and demand. It’s a basic economic principle that determines the price of a good or service. For Tampa Bay Water, that service is the delivery of wholesale drinking water to its member governments. The amount (supply) of that water depends on how much water (demand) each of these member governments needs.
The relationship between demand and supply underlies the forces behind the allocation of resources. In Tampa Bay Water’s case, we must know what the demand for water will be in the future so that we can ensure the supply will be there to meet that demand.
At a recent Tampa Bay Water Board meeting, staff gave a report that forecasted the long-term demand of its six member governments. This forecast model is evaluated and verified each year based on updated socio-economic projections.
The total regional demand projected for Water Year 2015 is 232.5 mgd (millions of gallon per day.) This is about 1.7 mgd lower than last year’s 2015 demand projection. The regional demand prediction for Water Year 2014 of 227.2 mgd is consistent and nearly identical to the Water Year 2014 actual demand of 226.8 mgd. The slightly lower demand forecast for Water Year 2015 is a result of less growth in single-family demand than was predicted.
Other factors that affected the long-term forecast included:
Tampa Bay Water uses the results of these long-term forecast models for two primary purposes: