20Oct
Drought Conditions Are Improving, but Conservation Still Matters

The Tampa Bay region’s water supply picture is brighter than it was earlier this year.  Late-summer rains beginning in late August boosted river flows in the Hillsborough and Alafia rivers. Tampa Bay Water is currently storing water in the reservoir at 200 million gallons per day (mgd) and will have more than 14 billion gallons in storage by the end of October if river flows continue at these levels. The extreme drought in south Hillsborough County has also begun to ease, and Florida overall has seen significant improvement. 

“We are not out of the drought yet, so continued conservation remains important,” said Warren Hogg, chief science officer for Tampa Bay Water. “Following watering restrictions will help our supplies continue to recover and bring us closer to the day restrictions can be lifted.”  

Much of our service area remains in a severe or moderate drought, and the Tampa Bay region is still under a Stage III Regional Water Supply Shortage. At the end of September, the 12-month rainfall deficit stood at 10 inches, and river flows were still 28 mgd below normal. Recovering from those deficits will take a winter of above-normal rainfall and sustained higher river flows. The Southwest Florida Water Management District has extended Phase III water restrictions through March 31, 2027, if needed, and will monitor conditions to decide when they can be eased. 

  • Fiscal Year 2026 water delivery averaged 202.07 mgd, 1.8% more than the prior year. We met that demand with 70% groundwater, 24% surface water and 6% desalinated seawater. 
  • Conservation is making a difference. Water delivery was below forecast levels in May and from July through September, and at least part of that reduction is attributed to the once-weekly watering restrictions and active enforcement by local governments. 
  • Easing pressure on our wellfields. We’ve had to rely heavily on groundwater to weather the drought, which put our 12-month average pumping rate for the Consolidated Permit Wellfields at 108.73 mgd. With stronger river flows and a rising reservoir level, we’ve increased surface water treatment to 60-70 mgd and can pull less from the wellfields. If this winter brings good rainfall and cooler temperatures, that will help return the 12-month average to the 90-mgd permit limit by summer 2027. 
  • Looking ahead. The budgeted delivery for Water Year 2027 is 212.84 mgd, with a projected supply mix of 57% groundwater, 37% surface water and 6% desalination.