Demand forecasts predict right amount of water at the right time
Tampa Bay Water’s mandate is to provide enough water for all our members in the short and long term. Every year Tampa Bay Water updates demand projections based on weather conditions and information from several sources, including the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, and member billing data, to give the best projection possible for the seven water demand planning areas of the six member governments.
These projections are used in annual budgeting, as they provide a basis for expected delivery and water source allocation and help manage rates. They also support long-range planning and reliability analysis. Models are developed for three major sectors: single family homes, multi-family homes and non-residential. Demand is forecasted to 2045.
For the Water Year 2021, Tampa Bay Water anticipates an increase of 2.48 million gallons per day over last year’s 2021 projections, due primarily to the increase in housing units in the Tampa Bay Water service area. Hillsborough County and the City of Tampa are the fastest growing among Tampa Bay Water’s members.
“We’ve long projected that in the 2020-2025 timeframe, the City of Tampa would begin exceeding its permitted supply from the Hillsborough River,” said Ken Herd, chief science and technical officer. “We update our projections each year so we can time our new supplies with new demand. Right now, we’re on track with three potential new supply options to keep pace with our members’ needs.”