River Flow Outlook: Week of November 8, 2013 - Tampa Bay Water Blog

River Flow Outlook: Week of November 8, 2013



Five to seven day outlooks have a slight chance of rain—about a quarter of an inch. Dry conditions are expected for next week (Figure 1).

Stream Flow

Both Alafia and Hillsborough Rivers are expected to sustain the current flow rates or a bit higher. Hillsborough River has pretty good chance of staying close to 75th percentile (Figure 2 and 3). 

Shaded areas are historical flows and forecast; open circle are current month observation whereas crosses are median forecast for the week starting 11/8/2013. 

Median forecast for Alafia River is 70 mgd (62 mgd to 81 mgd at 25% to 75% range). 

Morris Bridge median forecast is 102 mgd (95 mgd to 117 mgd at 25% to 75% range) weekly average.


There is enough of water to run SWTP for the current allocation for week to two. Alafia itself has around 11 to 13 mgd availability.

Figure 1. Seven Day Rainfall Outlook

Figure 2. Seven day flow outlook, Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge

Figure 3. Seven day flow outlook, Alafia River



This report is used to plan Tampa Bay Water’s surface water production rate by understanding how much the Tampa Bay Regional Surface Water Treatment Plan can reliably produce. As river flows increase and decline, Tampa Bay Water will rotate its other sources, desalinated seawater and groundwater, to meet regional demand.